The fat lady is going through her last round of vocal exercises, clearing her throat one final time before she sings. With a squeaker of a victory in Iowa, and a predictable win in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney has about a firm a grasp on the Republican nomination as any candidate could hope to at this point.

Some in the media don’t see it that way, of course. With the GOP having adopted the Democratic party’s primary rules (handing out delegates proportionally rather than a winner-take-all scenario), many believe that the nomination fight will be a long, driveling process, lasting well into the spring and possibly right up until the convention this summer.

That view, however, is ignoring the realities of perception in politics. Romney has been seen as the inevitable front-runner in this race as far back as 2008. He won the first two primary states, and the evidence suggests that he won’t stop claiming first prizes any time soon. He has already shifted the message of his campaign to attacking Barack Obama, which only further gives the impression to voters that Romney is the top dog.

Even a quick glance at the remaining Republican challengers inspires no confidence that Romney can be defeated. Rick Santorum got lucky in Iowa, but his social views are too extreme for him to ever be considered a serious nominee. Newt Gingrich has been relegated to “Romney attack duty.” Ron Paul is but an issue candidate, and Rick Perry’s slim chances ended with his “oops” moment. The only man left who ever had a real shot at challenging Romney is Jon Huntsman, who has yet to garner any meaningful support.

But how did things change so quickly? It was less than a month ago that Gingrich was riding high, leading the polls in most early states, and declaring with earnest that it was practically inevitable that he was going to be the nominee. Of course, statements like that could be viewed as part of Gingrich’s hubris — but what really killed his candidacy?

I’d attribute his fall to something to something I’m calling the “Mario Kart effect.” As any fan of said video game knows, it is the greatest of all sins to get ahead too early in Mario Kart. The race leader will be subject to the worst attacks — possibly hit by a red shell or shrunk by a strike of lightning. The safe strategy is to bide your time, sit back in second or third place, and then make a desperate run for the win near the end of the race.

Gingrich started leading in the Iowa polls right at the time other candidates, and their respective Super PACs, started buying ad time on local television. The numerous TV spots about Gingrich’s eco-friendly relationship with Nancy Pelosi, or his ethics violations as Speaker, or his personal indiscretions, were the campaign equivalent of a banana peel sitting in the middle of the race track. And Gingrich, pompous as ever, failed to pay attention — and slipped.

Gingrich’s demise also allows us to discuss the ever-terrifying nature of Super PACs. PAC is short for Political Action Committee, and a Super PAC is one that is allowed to collect unlimited money from undisclosed sources to support a candidate. Stephen Colbert is currently engaging in excellent satire about Super PACs, but they are a true danger to our democracy.

Look at the case of Rick Perry. He has been roundly rejected by voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire, is not polling all that well in South Carolina, and is being skewered by the media (for good reason). In any other year, he left this race a long time ago. But because of Super PACs and their influence, he is allowed to continue fighting.

Nevertheless, it looks like it will be Romney vs. Obama come November. Romney is leading the race in both South Carolina and Florida (the next two primary states) and has virtually unlimited funds. Super PACs will help him, too, especially ones funded by magnates on Wall Street. Remember, as Romney told us all, “corporations are people, too.” Sadly, the Supreme Court and the Federal Election Commission agree. Sayonara, democracy.