If you follow sports at all, by now you’ve probably read 100 things about the 1/3 pole of our MLB season. What’s important to remember is that, even though it’s not “still early,” really, it’s still pretty early.
I’m talking to you, Indians fans.
On June 1, 2007, the eventual AL Wildcard New York Yankees stood at 23-29, six games under and seven behind wild card leader Detroit. But they made a charge in the remaining four months of the season and earned the right to lose to the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS.
Granted, the Indians are facing dire circumstances. They’re six games under .500, five back of the White Sox and 8.5 back of Boston for the AL Wild Card. All three division leaders in the AL on June 1 last year ended up winning their division. At the rate things are going, Cleveland is NOT going to beat out Boston for the final playoff spot.
But they might not have to. History should be looked at as a guide, but it’s not a guarantee. And frankly, there’s still a lot of questions about the AL-leading Rays as well as the division leading ChiSox. At least in my mind there are.
Assuming the next two months go the route the first two did, what’s going to happen when the Rays see the BoSox in their rearview mirrors come August? They’re a young team, and I’m not sure that they’ll handle their success.
More suspect though are the White Sox. They’ve been winning due to one thing: starting pitching (four of their five starters are .500 or better). But their rotation could go south in an instant.
Obviously Buehrle and Vazquez are solid bets to make it through, but Gavin Floyd and John Danks have never handled this kind of load before. They both have ERAs under 3.25, but Floyd’s career high in innings is 70, and Danks’ isn’t much better at 139. The struggles of young pitchers once they eclipse the plus-30 mark on innings pitched is well documented, and this team seems ripe for a collapse.
And then there’s Jose Contreras’ corpse. I forgot that.
Boston and Los Angeles of Anaheim of SoCal seem like post season locks, but there’s two spots still up for grabs, and the Indians have the pieces (in theory) to get it done. With a soft interleague schedule (Padres, Rockies, Dodgers, Giants, Reds) coming up, the mix is right for the Tribe to get some momentum heading into the break. Now it’s all about execution.
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As for the Reds (no, we here at UWeekly haven’t forgotten you sad, lonely, pathetic Reds fans), I’ve got two words why you’re not worried.
Jay Bruce.
Not that you don’t already know the kid is hitting .591 in six games. Obviously he’s not going to keep it up, but he’s already batting second in the order, and I don’t think there’s going to be any “back to the minors” action for him.
All of that being said, that’s not why the Reds have a shot. The NL East is why.
Thanks to the unbalanced schedule, Philly, Florida, Atlanta and New York have to play each other roughly 936 more times this season. And unless two of them can dominate those match ups from here on out, I don’t think the runner up will have enough wins to capture the wild card.
Thus opening the door for Cincinnati.
You’re not catching the Cubbies. You’re just not. Pitching wins in the regular season, but it’s hitting that gets you to 100 wins, and the Cubs hit like an AL club. Not that their pitching is bad (3.61 staff ERA is third in the NL).
More importantly, Cincy is only five and a half back from St. Louis for the wild card. Do you really think Adam Wainright, Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer and Mike Parisi are going to hold it together? It would take a miracle (cough-HGH-cough) for Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder to come back healthy, and that rotation would still be only slightly above average.
Nobody other than Arizona in the NL West seems like they actually care about 2008, so the door is wide open for the Reds to make a charge. There’s just one big problem.
It always comes back to starting pitching, doesn’t it.
Johnny Cueto has been inconsistent, and it’s hard to depend on a rookie anyway. Eddie Volquez has been fantastic, but again, doesn’t have many innings under his belt. I don’t know how those guys are going to hold up.
And then there’s Bronson Arroyo, who flat out sucks.
If the Jay Bruce call-up has proven anything, it’s that youth can inject life into your team. So why not call up Homer Bailey? Matt Belisle is being converted to a reliever, and Josh Fogg is a train wreck. Other than Bailey’s little walk problem (31 walks in 69.1 innings), he appears to be Major League ready. Might as well let the kid learn on the job.
The only problem with that line of thought is that you’d be depending on Aaron Harang, two rookies, a second year guy and the artist formerly known as Bronson Arroyo in August and September. If there’s one thing the Reds don’t want to do with their promising cast of young pitchers, it’s blow out their arms a la Mark Prior/Kerry Wood.
Oh yeah, Dusty Baker’s the manager.
So the Reds have a shot, but the bats (a.k.a. Jay Bruce) are going to have to do the heavy lifting. If I’m Cincinnati, I’m calling up Baily and then using Josh Fogg (once he’s off the DL) to give Cueto, Volquez and Baily two weeks off in July and August so those arms will be fresh for fall. With a little luck, that might be enough to get it done.
And even if they can’t, as long as Dusty isn’t allowed near their shoulders, there will always be 2009.
-Josh Lehman